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　　Recently, the price of raw materials has strengthened, and the inventory has returned to the stage of deleveraging, but the spot price of stainless steel has fluctuated repeatedly. Where is the market direction?

　　Raw material prices are strong, stainless steel support still exists

　　In terms of nickel-iron, the stainless steel market ushered in a tide of replenishment after May 1st, but steel mills have not yet completed the procurement of nickel-iron raw materials, and the price-pressing mentality of nickel-iron has been loosened. In addition, nickel-iron merchants have a high cost of holding goods and a strong price-holding mentality, which has helped nickel-iron prices stop falling and rebound.At this stage, steel mills have basically completed the procurement of raw materials, and the price of nickel-iron has remained stable. On May 11, the domestic price of Mysteel high nickel-iron temporarily stabilized to 1140-1155 yuan/nickel.

　　In terms of ferrochromium, the recent shortage of spot resources for chromium ore, the decline in port stocks, and the high price of chromium ore have driven the price of ferrochromium to rise. On May 11, Inner Mongolia's high-carbon ferrochromium natural block cash tax-included factory quotation is 8900-9100 yuan/50 base tons.However, the strong operation of chromium ore prices has suppressed the enthusiasm of ferrochromic factories. Recently, some high-carbon ferrochromic production enterprises have been discontinued due to equipment maintenance, and subsequent ferrochromic prices may still have room for improvement.

　　Inventory is back to de-chemical, downstream consumption is slow

　　In the latest issue of inventory statistics (May 11), the total inventory of stainless steel products in the mainstream market across the country fell by 3.25% week-on-week to 1.094 million tons.

　The spot market was mostly closed during the May 1st holiday, while steel mills shipped normally, and social stocks accumulated as scheduled.The opening of the market after the festival led to a tide of downstream replenishment of warehouses, and steel mills maintained low-level shipments, and inventories returned to the downward channel this week.However, with the restoration of production profits, the enthusiasm of steel mills to increase production and resume production has increased, and subsequent supply expectations are too loose.

　　Steel mill profits repaired, output rebounded in May

　　With the increase in raw material prices, the production profits of steel mills have recovered. On May 11, the smelting cost of 304 cold-rolled high-nickel-iron process was 15,240 yuan/ton, the price of finished product 304 (2.0 cold-rolled) was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 cold-rolled high-nickel-iron process smelting was 2.4%.

　According to Mysteel's research, the output of stainless steel plants increased by 10.9% QoQ to 3.0989 million tons in May, of which the output of the 300 series increased significantly, with a monthly output of 1.6671 million tons, close to the historical high level.

　　Price rise and fall dilemma short-term shock adjustment

　　After May 1st, the price of raw materials continued to rise. In addition, the level of goods held by merchants in the market was not high, and the spot price of stainless steel was resistant to decline. Taking Foshan 304 Delong as an example, on May 11, the base price of 304 cold-rolled four-foot rough was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 304 hot-rolled five-foot rough was 15,000 yuan/ton.

　　Summary: There are not many spot resources in the current market, and the downstream also maintains just-in-demand purchases. The relationship between supply and demand has temporarily achieved a balance. However, with the rebound in steel mill output in May and the continued growth of nickel-iron production in Indonesia, the subsequent stainless steel price scale may be tilted, and it is expected that the short-term price shock adjustment will be the main one.